Each year it seems as though the fantasy baseball season begins earlier and earlier. Most sharp players are already beginning their research for the next year before the current year even comes to a close. As the 2023 MLB postseason rolls on, draft season is already well underway and a consensus average draft position will soon form.
Before that completely takes shape though, we got the Rotoworld baseball crew (and several of our friends in the industry) together to select players in standard snake-style fashion for a 12-team mock draft.
This will give you some insight into our thoughts and how we’re reading the landscape before ADP begins to influence our decisions.
Follow along with our round-by-round analysis and develop some ideas for your own drafts!
For this particular mock draft, we utilized the basic 5x5 scoring that most fantasy managers are accustomed to: AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB on the hitting side, and W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K on the pitching side. And with the following position setup: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 5 OF, UTIL and 9 P.
The participants, in draft order …
1. Eric Cross (RotoBaller, Toolshed podcast)
2. Eric Samulski (Rotoworld)
3. Greg Jewett (Reliever Recon)
4. Nick Mariano (RotoBaller)
5. Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
6. Jorge Montanez (Rotoworld)
7. Matthew Pouliot (Rotoworld)
8. Chris Clegg (Dynasty Dugout)
9. Shelly Verougstraete (Rotoworld)
10. George Bissell (Rotoworld)
11. Dave Shovein (Rotoworld)
12. D.J. Short (Rotoworld)
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Round 1
1.01 Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves
1.02 Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
1.03 Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
1.04 Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
1.05 Mookie Betts, 2B/OF, Dodgers
1.06 Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
1.07 Trea Turner, SS, Phillies
1.08 Kyle Tucker, OF, Astros
1.09 Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers
1.10 Jose Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
1.11 Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
1.12 Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees
Round Analysis:
And they’re off! It should come as a shock to absolutely no one that Ronald Acuña Jr. sits as the first overall pick here – as he’ll hold that honor in most fantasy drafts throughout the winter and spring. The 25-year-old superstar and likely National League MVP finished as the consensus top overall selection in fantasy drafts last March – then went out and slashed a gargantuan .337/.416/.596 with 41 homers, 149 runs scored, 106 RBI and a jaw-dropping 73 stolen bases. As long as he remains healthy, he should finish among the top overall performers once again in 2024.
Behind Acuña Jr. you start to see the wave of the fresh, young, power/speed superstars in the league – Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Corbin Carroll. You should be able to pencil each of them into the first round for the next 5-7 years. Trea Turner was in the conversation for the top overall selection in 2023 fantasy drafts, and though he had a “disappointing season”, he still had 26 homers and 30 steals while eclipsing 100 runs scored – and is lighting the world on fire during the postseason. He’ll be just fine in 2024. Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramírez – and even Freddie Freeman – are pulled from that same power/speed mold that most fantasy managers are looking to build around with their foundation picks. Ramírez (3B) and Freeman (1B) give the added benefit of adding speed from an unconventional position. Betts gaining second base eligibility (as well as shortstop in leagues that only require 10 or 15 games played at the position the previous year to qualify) is a tremendous boon to his fantasy value as well.
The one player who stands out to me as someone who doesn’t quite fit in here is Aaron Judge (sorry Nick). The 31-year-old slugger was a five-category monster and league-winner for many during the 2022 season, and we still saw elite power production and counting stats from him when he was on the field in 2023, but he only swiped three bases in four attempts. In this day and age – with the massive increase in stolen bases league-wide – you can wind up making the draft a whole lot more difficult for yourself by grabbing a hitter in the first round who isn’t going to provide much (if anything) in the category. It can work, and I’m curious to see where the roster construction goes from here, but I think Nick’s going to face an uphill battle in stolen bases for the rest of the draft.
Down at the bottom of the round, we see the first two starting pitchers come off the board in Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole. When looking at production from starting pitchers, wins can be highly variable from season-to-season and ratios (especially ERA) can fluctuate due to a variety of factors. Strikeouts are usually pretty stable though and are the asset that most fantasy managers are targeting on the pitching side – and these two right-handers have them in spades.
Cole was an absolute workhorse once again in 2023 – leading the American League in ERA (2.63) and WHIP (0.98) while eclipsing the 200-strikeout plateau for his fifth consecutive full season (2020 non-withstanding), though he did see his strikeout rate plummet to 27% after sitting 32.6% or higher in each of his first five seasons since coming to the American League in 2018. Strider meanwhile, paced all of baseball in strikeouts with a whopping 281 – 44 clear of Kevin Gausman who led the American League. His ERA (3.86) was a bit elevated in 2023, but his peripherals (2.93 xFIP, 3.04 xERA, 2.86 SIERA) paint a much rosier picture going forward. Both are great, but the massive strikeout advantage, combined with Cole slipping in that category, is what led me to grab Strider as the first starting pitcher off the board. - Dave Shovein (@daveshovein)
Round 2:
2.13 Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres
2.14 Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies
2.15 Juan Soto, OF, Padres
2.16 Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros
2.17 Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers
2.18 Matt Olson, 1B, Braves
2.19 Shohei Ohtani, UTIL, Angels
2.20 Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers
2.21 Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox
2.22 Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
2.23 Austin Riley, 3B, Braves
2.24 Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox
Round Analysis:
At a glance, the second round might look pretty straightforward, but there’s a whole lot going on here. Let’s try to unpack it. For starters, Fernando Tatis Jr. is an absolute stud, and proved that by having a terrific five-category campaign even after missing the entire 2022 season and having to serve a 20-game suspension to begin the year. He’s going to wind up as a consensus first round pick, and could even land in the top half of the first round. That’s an excellent pick by D.J., and someone that I hoped to grab on the way back after taking Strider in the first round.
Juan Soto matched his career-high with 12 stolen bases (in 17 attempts) while slugging a career-best 35 home runs during the 2023 campaign. Despite it being his seventh full season in the big leagues, he’s heading into his age-25 season and it’s very possible that we haven’t seen his best work yet. He’ll be a fringe first-rounder in many leagues as well. This is more of the range that I expect Aaron Judge to eventually settle into – the top half of the second round. You’ll see several similar skillsets taken here in Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson, Corey Seager, Austin Riley and Rafael Devers. Bryce Harper will be a fascinating player to monitor throughout the draft season. He made a Herculean recovery from Tommy John surgery – beating his anticipated return date by nearly a month – as he returned before the All-Star break in 2023. We saw signs of rust through the first few months, but he wound up being a monster down the stretch and overall delivered an outstanding five-category contribution. He gets the added bonus of being eligible at first base heading into 2024, where he makes for an interesting source of speed from an unconventional position.
We see a couple more of that attractive power/speed combo off the board in this round in Luis Robert Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani would have been a lock for the first round if he were able to pitch in 2024. Robert Jr. pretty quietly went 38/20 for the White Sox during his age-25 season in 2023 and the sky is the limit for him moving forward. He's got plenty of speed to burn and if he chooses to run more – or if Pedro Grifol gives him more freedom on the basepaths – we could be looking at a 40/40 type of season in 2024.
Shockingly, Corbin Burnes was the only starting pitcher that went off the board in the second round here. That’s not a knock on Burnes at all, he’s absolutely worthy of the pick, but what we’re seeing in early 2024 drafts is a shift away from starting pitching in the early rounds. Part of that could be a knee-jerk reaction to how many top pitchers underperformed or got hurt during the 2023 season, while part of it could be attributed to how many strong starting pitching options there are in the middle rounds. Ultimately, it’s going to be up to each fantasy manager to find the pockets in the draft that they identify as the best spots to land their top hurlers – but be careful because it’s a minefield out there.
Whether due to injury or performance 10 of the top-20 starting pitchers from 2023 fantasy drafts were considered massive disappointments (Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Brandon Woodruff, Cristian Javier, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, Julio Urias, Max Fried, Alek Manoah and Yu Darvish), while four others (Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Shane McClanahan) were fine, but still didn’t return a profit or live up to their lofty expectations (McClanahan would have had it not been for the injury). That leaves just six of the top-20 that even came close to or exceeded their expectations – and we’ve already seen three of those six drafted here in Cole, Strider and Burnes. The other three (Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo and Zack Wheeler), I’d expect to see shortly. -Dave Shovein (@daveshovein)
Round 3:
3.25 Bo Bichette SS, Blue Jays
3.26 Ozzie Albies 2B, Braves
3.27 Elly De La Cruz 3B/SS, Reds
3.28 Adolis Garcia OF, Rangers
3.29 Pete Alonso 1B, Mets
3.30 Francisco Lindor SS, Mets
3.31 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B, Blue Jays
3.32 Michael Harris II OF, Braves
3.33 Luis Castillo SP, Mariners
3.34 Zack Wheeler SP, Phillies
3.35 Gunnar Henderson 3B/SS, Orioles
3.36 Randy Arozarena OF, Rays
Round Analysis:
Position players continue to dominate the early part of this draft. Through three rounds, only five starting pitchers have been selected, with Luis Castillo (to Shelly Verougstraete) and Zack Wheeler (to George Bissell) going back-to-back here. It’s a trend to keep in mind as you begin to formulate your strategy for 2024 drafts. There’s just not a lot of separation once the top pitchers are off the board.
Eric Cross got the third round started with Bo Bichette, who has evolved into one of the safest batting average plays out there, though his 25-steal season from 2021 is beginning to look like an outlier. It’s notable that Pete Alonso went ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. here, though maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise at this point. While Vlad continues to hit the ball hard, a lot of that contact is coming on the ground and simply isn’t translating to big power numbers. Alonso had a topsy-turvy 2023 season, but there’s no questioning his power upside and there’s likely a batting average rebound on the way.
Perhaps the boldest pick from the third round was Greg Jewett’s selection of Elly De La Cruz ahead of the likes of Francisco Lindor and Gunnar Henderson. De La Cruz set the fantasy world (and StatCast) on fire upon his promotion to the majors this summer, but for all of the exciting moments, pitchers ultimately took advantage of his youthful exuberance. The 21-year-old struck out 33.7 percent of the time and lost playing time down the stretch while hitting .200 over his final 51 games. His profile remains exciting and progress shouldn’t be ruled out as he gains more experience, but De La Cruz figures to be one of the more polarizing players in 2024 drafts.
I closed out the third round with another outfielder in Randy Arozarena, which wasn’t a slam dunk pick on my part. I also considered Mike Trout and Josh Lowe in this spot, but Trout’s recent injury history and Lowe sitting against some lefties nudged me in the direction of Arozarena. While I’m not expecting category dominance here, he’s now gone 20-20 in each of the last three seasons. - D.J. Short (@djshort)
Round 4:
4.37 Manny Machado 3B, Padres
4.38 Royce Lewis 3B, Twins
4.39 Mike Trout OF, Angels
4.40 Jose Altuve 2B, Astros
4.41 Cody Bellinger 1B/OF, Cubs
4.42 Kevin Gausman SP, Blue Jays
4.43 Zac Gallen SP, Diamondbacks
4.44 Logan Webb SP, Giants
4.45 CJ Abrams SS, Nationals
4.46 Nolan Jones OF, Rockies
4.47 Pablo Lopez SP, Twins
4.48 Blake Snell SP, Padres
Round Analysis:
After position players dominated the first three rounds, we started to see starting pitchers come off the board in chunks here, with five of the 12 picks in this round being starters. That means the first ten starting pitchers were off the board by the end of the fourth round and half of them came in the fourth round. We have no idea if that holds true as we get into drafts in the spring, but if it does, it could mean you’ll want to draft near the end of the draft if you want to pick the starter who creates the run or pick near the top draft if you’re OK with taking who falls to you.
Personally, I was OK taking who fell to me because I knew that Pablo Lopez would make it back. I currently have Lopez as my seventh-ranked starter, so I was happy to get him as the ninth starter off the board. At 27-years-old, Lopez has flashed great ability in the past but has battled some injury issues. In 2023, he stayed healthy for the second straight season, throwing 194 innings with a 3.66 ERA (3.37 SIERA), 1.15 WHIP, and 234 strikeouts. That health is one reason I’m in on Lopez for next year, but the main one is his revamped rotation that led to a tremendous 14.5% swinging strike rate. In the offseason, Lopez worked at Driveline and came back with a 1.4 mph bump in four-seam velocity and a new sweeper that had a 2.59 dERA (Defense Independent ERA) and 16.9% SwStr%. He also tweaked his curveball to get more swings-and-misses, so I think the growth there is legit, and there is positive ratio regression suggested by his underlying metrics.
Eric Cross ended the round taking potential NL Cy Young Blake Snell. The left-hander is likely to be an intense talking point all offseason due to his impending free agency and his mercurial metrics. While you love his 2.25 ERA, 15.3% SwStr%, and 234 strikeouts in 180 innings, you don't love his 13.3% walk rate, 1.19 WHIP, or 4.06 SIERA (3.62 xFIP). You also don't love that he had a 36.8% bad pitch rating (according to Pitcher List) and has only thrown over 130 innings once since 2019. The talent is certainly there, but will people be willing to pay for a 2023 season where everything clearly went right or will people be scared off by the injury history, inflated WHIP, and more muted underlying metrics? Considering he was taken here as the 10th starter off the board, it might suggest that people are going to be buying in on the talent.
The other interesting names in round four were young “former” prospects Nolan Jones (Jewett) and Royce Lewis (Shovein). While both players remain young, they had seen their fantasy stock dip due to injuries in Lewis’ case and poor production and playing time concerns in Jones’ case. However, both of them flashed in their 2023 playing time, and Jones may have put up the quietest 20/20 season with a near .300 batting average that we’ve seen in recent memory. Both players have legit five-category upside and despite seeming like risks due to the slow starts to their MLB careers, they also pack untapped upside, which is rare for players that have already produced at this level. They also become another two examples of why we shouldn’t write off prospects with a long track record of success just because of a slow start. - Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC)
Round 5:
5.49 Eury Perez SP, Marlins
5.50 Josh Hader RP, Padres
5.51 Aaron Nola SP, Phillies
5.52 Devin Williams RP, Brewers
5.53 Christian Yelich OF, Brewers
5.54 George Kirby SP, Mariners
5.55 Edwin Díaz RP, Mets
5.56 Freddy Peralta SP, Brewers
5.57 Tyler Glasnow SP, Rays
5.58 Jazz Chisholm OF, Marlins
5.59 Tarik Skubal SP, Tigers
5.60 Emmanuel Clase RP, Guardians
Round Analysis:
Is it fuchsia? Coral? It's not quite pink, and it's not really red. Anyway, it's the color of a pitcher pick on our mock draft board, and it was the dominant color in Round 5. Ten of the 12 picks in that pass came from the mound -- six starters and four closers. And if we attach a late pitcher run from Round 4, and we're looking at 15 hurlers selected among 19 picks. It's a long way from the first round, where the first 10 picks were hitters.
The only two pitching holdouts in Round 5 were George Bissell (who took Jazz Chisholm at 5.10) and myself (Christian Yelich, 5.05). I went back-and-forth on Yelich vs. George Kirby for a good 10 minutes; eventually the calm of a leisurely mock turned into the stress of being unable to make a decision, so I clicked on Yelich. It's funny that Kirby went right after Yelich; nothing kicks in buyer's remorse like the player you eschew getting snap-picked a moment later.
The popular roster construction through five rounds is three hitters and two pitchers; eight teams opted for that path. Bissell, Greg Jewett, Nick Mariano, and myself are the lone holdouts, the teams that preferred four hitters against a solo pitcher.
The pitcher haul had a little bit of everything. You have young players on the escalator (Eury Perez, Tarik Skubal), a name brand who can't seem to match his expected stats (Aaron Nola), a perennial risk-reward tease (Tyler Glasnow), and even a closer coming off a lost season (Edwin Diaz). I suspect a popular bullpen build in 2024 will be the Anchor Approach, where you try to land one sure thing and then play the value game otherwise, be it at the draft or while making shrewd free agency bids. - Scott Pianowski (@scott_pianowski)
Round 6:
6.61 Matt McLain SS, Reds
6.62 Alexis Díaz RP, Reds
6.63 Oneil Cruz SS, Pirates
6.64 David Bednar RP, Pirates
6.65 Camilo Doval RP, Giants
6.66 Logan Gilbert SP, Mariners
6.67 Josh Lowe OF, Rays
6.68 Alex Bregman 3B, Astros
6.69 Justin Steele SP, Cubs
6.70 Kodai Senga SP, Mets
6.71 Ha-Seong Kim 2B, Padres
6.72 Framber Valdez SP, Astros
Round Analysis:
While it didn’t match round five’s 10 taken, seven hurlers came off the board in round six, with the first three of those being closers and the last four starters. Camilo Doval seemed like a little bit of a bargain as the No. 7 reliever off the board; he ranked fourth in fantasy value among relievers in 2023, and it doesn’t seem like he’s peaked at age 26.
I grabbed the first of the four starters, making Logan Gilbert the No. 17 SP off the board. His 3.73 ERA in 2023 was higher than his 3.20 mark from 2022, but his strikeout, walk and groundball rates all improved from the year before. The contact that he allows tends to be pretty loud, but Safeco helps there, and he still could take a step forward when it comes to strikeouts.
Apart from Josh Lowe, the bats drafted in round six were all infielders; Matt McLain, Oneil Cruz, Alex Bregman and Ha-Seong Kim. Cruz, who was Elly De La Cruz before Elly De La Cruz, stands out as the upside pick after missing almost all of 2023 with a fractured ankle. He’s a legit 30-30 threat, assuming that everything has healed properly. He probably won’t be as strong as the other categories, but at least that Pirates lineup isn’t quite as desolate as it once was.
Kim will be a bit controversial this year. After totaling 19 homers and 18 steals in 267 games between 2021 and ‘22, he was extremely valuable in totaling 17 homers and 38 steals in 152 games this year. However, his exit velocity numbers were actually worse than in his first two MLB seasons; his 26.2% hard-hit rate placed him 129th of the 133 players to qualify for the batting title. If he keeps running and holds on to a spot in the top third of the Padres lineup, he could provide nice value again. If he isn’t so aggressive on the basepaths and he eventually returns to batting sixth and seventh, he might not be of any use in mixed leagues. - Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot)
Round 7
7.73 Paul Goldschmidt 1B, Cardinals
7.74 Christian Walker 1B, Diamondbacks
7.75 Jhoan Duran RP, Twins
7.76 Nico ho*rner 2B, Cubs
7.77 Lane Thomas OF, Nationals
7.78 Spencer Steer 1B/3B/OF, Reds
7.79 Josh Jung 3B, Rangers
7.80 Adley Rutschman C, Orioles
7.81 Grayson Rodriguez SP, Orioles
7.82 Cole Ragans SP, Royals
7.83 Raisel Iglesias RP, Braves
7.84 Max Fried SP, Braves
Round Analysis:
After teams attacked pitching in rounds four, five, and six, we saw the next run of hitters in round seven. A couple of power-hitting first basem*n, Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker, got us started with the first two picks. Goldschmidt continues to prove he has plenty left in the tank with another productive season, hitting .268 with 25 homers and 11 steals. While the power total declined from the 35 homers he hit in 2022, he maintained an 11.9 percent barrel rate, in line with the previous season's 11.5 percent. Walker had an even better 2023, blasting 33 homers with an equal 11 stolen bases and a .258 batting average. Interestingly, both sluggers produced 52 barreled balls in 2023, Walker just had the better fortune there with eight more home runs. It's hard to go wrong with either. Jhoan Duran followed the first basem*n as the seventh closer off the board.
The next four picks bring us four hitters new to the top 100 in fantasy drafts. ho*rner put together his first full season, but failed to reach double-digit home runs. And there isn't much reason to think there's more upside there with just a 1.7 percent barrel rate. So, you'd have to keep that in mind when selecting the second baseman. Be prepared to look for power elsewhere. Power was no problem for the next three, with Steer and Jung slugging 23 home runs, and Thomas leading the way with 28. Thomas produced more like a hitter going in the top four rounds, adding 20 steals with 101 runs, 86 RBI, and a .268 batting average. His underlying metrics mostly support the production, with his high strikeout rate (25.8 percent) relative to his low walk rate (5.3%) being the only real flaw. Steer was my pick. He'll have eligibility at every position but shortstop and catcher. That added versatility and potential to get some steals from the third base position made him an attractive option for me here. Not to mention the excellent hitting environment and lineup in Cincinnati.
We got a couple of Orioles with the next two picks. Adley Rutschman was the first catcher off the board. The 25-year-old should again lead the position in plate appearances while providing outstanding four-category production. And while Rodriguez had a shakey start to the season, he put up an impressive 2.58 ERA over his final 76 2/3 innings in the second half. Another second-half darling, Cole Ragans, produced a 2.64 ERA across 71 2/3 innings following the All-Star break. Finishing out the round were a couple of Braves. Raisel Iglesias was one of the better closers in baseball on one of the best teams. It seems like a solid value here. And while while Max Fried is one of the best bets to give you excellent ratios, a dreaded forearm strain cost him a chunk of the 2023 season, limiting him to 77 2/3 innings. So, there's some risk there, but the payoff could be incredible. - Jorge Montanez (@rotonino)
Round 8
8.85 Yandy Diaz 1B, Rays
8.86 Spencer Torkelson 1B, Tigers
8.87 Nolan Arenado 3B, Cardinals
8.88 Bryan Reynolds OF, Pirates
8.89 Triston Casas 1B, Red Sox
8.90 Will Smith C, Dodgers
8.91 Paul Sewald RP, Diamondbacks
8.92 Jordan Romano RP, Blue Jays
8.93 Kyle Bradish SP, Orioles
8.94 Jesus Luzardo SP, Marlins
8.95 Walker Buehler SP, Dodgers
8.96 Jordan Walker OF, Cardinals
Round Analysis:
We kicked off the eighth round with four of the first five picks going to corner infielders. My selection was Yandy Díaz after a bit of consideration for Triston Casas, who went four picks later to Chris Clegg. Díaz doesn’t bring the power potential that Casas does, but he’s a .290 career hitter and gets plenty of volume as the Rays’ primary leadoff hitter. He filled a specific need for my roster. Casas and Torkelson is an interesting debate as young power hitters on the rise. Casas’ was definitely better, though (.317, 15 HR, 1.034 OPS), so I’m more optimistic about him going into 2024. Still, I happily welcome some new blood at the first base position.
This might be latest fantasy managers might be able to get Walker Buehler in the next few years. The last time we saw him in a full season in 2021, he posted a career-best 2.47 ERA across 33 starts. The Dodgers opted against Buehler returning this season, but he should be 100 percent for spring training. It would be no surprise if he’s a better fantasy performer than Jesus Luzardo or Kyle Bradish next year. And that’s no slight on those guys.
The hype has cooled a bit on Jordan Walker, but he finished his rookie season on a heater, slashing .339/.392/.545 with five home runs over his final 30 games. He lofted the ball more often as the season moved along, which is hopefully a sign of things to come. And while his stolen base numbers didn’t show it, his sprint speed points to more on that front as well. He doesn’t turn 22 years old until next May. - D.J. Short (@djshort)
Round 9:
9.97 Andres Munoz RP, Mariners
9.98 Nick Castellanos OF, Phillies
9.99 Gleyber Torres 2B, Yankees
9.100 Yoshinobu Yamamoto SP, Japan
9.101 Zach Eflin SP, Rays
9.102 J.T. Realmuto, C Phillies
9.103 Tanner Bibee SP, Guardians
9.104 Xander Bogaerts SS, Padres
9.105 Seiya Suzuki OF, Cubs
9.106 Joe Musgrove SP, Padres
9.107 Bobby Miller SP, Dodgers
9.108 Joe Ryan SP, Twins
Round Analysis:
We have to start with the name that jumps out the most: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who went 100th overall to Nick Mariano. If you're not yet familiar with Yamamoto's name, you will be very soon as the 25-year-old from Japan is likely the top starting pitcher on the free agent market and is primed to sign a huge contact to come Stateside. When he was 18-years-old, he pitched to a 2.35 ERA in 57 1/3 innings in the Nippon Professional Baseball league. In seven seasons, he has a 1.72 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in just under 1,000 innings pitched. He made five All-Star teams, threw four no-hitters, won three Japanese Triple Crowns, two Sawamura Awards (NPB’s Cy Young), and two MVPs. He has pinpoint command, an upper 90's fastball, and a deep arsenal of pitches. However, he has never lived in America before or played in MLB games, so we are speculating on how he adjusts in his first season. He could push to be a top 10-15 starter in baseball or he could be inconsistent like we saw with Kodai Senga. At pick 100, you love that gamble though.
Round nine also continued to show why waiting on starting pitching makes sense. Aside from Yamamoto, there are another four starters picked in round nine who could easily finish the season as top 20 starting pitchers. Zach Eflin is coming off a 16-win season in Tampa Bay where he added a new pitch, tweaked his slider mid-season, and posted a strikeout rate better than 25% and people seem to be writing it off. Joe Ryan was a top 10 starter for the first half of the season until he lost command of his new splitter, but we know he's right back to Driveline and working on refining his pitches. Bobby Miller was solid in his debut for the Dodgers with a high-90s fastball and a plus curveball. If his slider improves even a small amount, he's going to be a huge fantasy asset, and Joe Musgrove as long been a fringe top-20 pitcher who we've seemingly forgotten about because he was injured much of this year. You're happy with all of these guys as your SP2 and they went in round nine.
This is also the part of the draft where you start to see outfield depth dry up. I snagged Castellanos here because he and Seiya Suzuki were really the last two players I had valued around this range. In my opinion, the players you'll all see go after this have some real question marks (and then there's Evan Carter, who keeps rising up draft boards). Now Castellanos isn't a stud, but he's gonna hit around .270 with 25+ home runs in a great park and a great lineup. Sometimes that kind of security is nice to have at this stage in the draft.
Which is also probably how Chris Clegg felt about getting Xander Bogaerts outside of the top 100. We knew the move away from Fenway Park would hurt Bogey's average and power numbers, and it did, but he's a 20/20 threat who will still hit around .290. That's absolutely worthy of going higher in drafts if you want to wait and secure your shortstop spot. - Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC)
Round 10
10.109 Ketel Marte, 2B Diamondbacks
10.110 Evan Carter, OF, Rangers
10.111 Kyle Schwarber, OF, Phillies
10.112 Dylan Cease, SP White Sox
10.113 Bryson Stott, 2B, Phillies
10.114 Ryan Helsley, RP Cardinals
10.115 Jorge Soler, OF Marlins
10.116 George Springer, OF, Blue Jays
10.117 Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B
10.118 Jordan Montgomery, SP Free Agent
10.119 Josh Naylor, 1B Guardians
10.120 William Contreras, C Brewers
Round Analysis:
After the last two rounds, where mostly pitchers were selected, nine fantasy managers added a hitter to their squad. Ketel Marte, the NLCS MVP, had a great bounce back season this year, hitting .276/.358/.485 with 25 homers across 650 plate appearances, which is the most he has had in his major league career. Evan “Full-Count” Carter has been a revelation since he joined the Rangers late in the season, and Bruce Bochy has trusted him enough to bat him third in essential games in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts next season when there is a big book on him.
Jorge Soler, like Ketel Marte, saw a bounce back in his season-long stat line after battling injuries last year. He swatted 36 balls out of the yard, and 16 of them came in the cavernous Marlins home ballpark, which is mighty impressive. Soler, also like Marte, has battled injuries in previous seasons, so fantasy managers should expect both to miss some time next season. CES debuted in July and was slow out of the gate but hit .301/.348/.614 with eight homers after the calendar flipped to September. The Reds' lineup, and especially their infield, is pretty stacked, and it is still a bit murky who will lose those precious PAs when the season begins.
As I stated before, three pitchers were selected in the tenth round: one reliever and two starters. I took Dylan Cease with pick 112. The right-hander had a dreadful year, posting a 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 17% K/BB ratio. It is easy to see why many fantasy managers might be scared off by those stats, but if we dig under the hood a bit, we can see he was quite unlucky. He had a .330 BABIP, which is the highest mark of his career, and pairing that with a 69 percent LOB rate, we can easily see how his WHIP got out of control. The White Sox reliever didn’t do him any favors, either. He left 27 men on base after he left the game, and 11 of those batters came around to score, or 41 percent. Keep in mind that the league average is 32 percent. While I not expecting him to get back to his 2022 version, he should post better ratios next season and is one of a handful of pitchers who I can rely on to get more than 200 punchouts. - Shelly Verougstraete (@ShellyV_643)
